Business Valuation: Commercial Infrastructure (Mobility)

The average Swiss Commercial Infrastructure (Mobility) company is valued at 4.5 - 6.5× EBITDA on a statutory (tax-based) basis and 6.0 - 8.5× EBITDA in actual deal transactions. The spread between statutory and deal multiples represents a key arbitrage opportunity for informed buyers. The current market trend is stable, with an arbitrage gap rated as medium. Actual valuations depend heavily on recurring revenue share, customer diversification, management depth, and equipment modernity.

Key valuation drivers include: The measured trend runs upward: BFS STATENT 2024 puts NOGA division 30, which holds rolling stock, at 13,699 employees against 10,932 in 2012 — up 25.3% while most Swiss manufacturing divisions contracted; Railway, road and aircraft vehicles were the strongest Swiss tech export group in H1 2026 at +19.3%, against total tech exports of +1.7% and machinery at -2.1%. Factors that can compress valuations include: Two of the eight companies listed in the February 2026 edition of this report are not registered as described: there is no Molinari Rail AG, and no ABB Traction entity in Turgi; The vehicle half of the niche is shrinking: NOGA division 29 employment fell from 4,970 in 2012 to 3,794 in STATENT 2024, down 23.7%. Deal multiples typically range from 6.0 - 8.5× EBITDA, but actual prices vary significantly based on customer concentration, management quality, revenue predictability, and geographic reach within Switzerland's 26 cantons.

The honest answer is that this niche has no single count, because it straddles two NOGA sections: vehicle manufacturing sits in section C and the track, catenary and depot contractors sit in construction division 42. What is measured is the manufacturing half, and BFS STATENT 2024, published 20 August 2026, gives it precisely: 250 establishments and 3,794 employees in NOGA division 29 (motor vehicles and parts), and 290 establishments and 13,699 employees in division 30 (other transport equipment, which holds rolling stock) — 540 establishments and 17,493 employees together. The February 2026 edition of this report gave roughly 1,800 companies and roughly 32,000 employees; neither figure can be reconciled with a published division, and the employment count overstated the measured vehicle-manufacturing base by roughly a factor of two. The two divisions also move in opposite directions, which matters more than the level: division 30 employment is up 25.3% since 2012, from 10,932, while division 29 is down 23.7%, from 4,970. Rail is growing and vehicles are shrinking inside the same niche. Swissmem's half-year figures agree — railway, road and aircraft vehicle exports rose 19.3% in H1 2026, the strongest of all Swiss tech product groups. The commercial register also thins the earlier player list: there is no Molinari Rail AG, and no "ABB Traction" entity in Turgi — the register holds ABB Schweiz AG in Baden. ALSTOM Schweiz AG is registered in Zürich rather than Villeneuve (VD), a second Alstom entity in Bern is in liquidation, and Sécheron Hasler Group SA is registered in Glarus, not Geneva.

Succession in this niche splits along the same line the statistics do. The vehicle manufacturing side is contracting — NOGA division 29 employment fell 23.7% between 2012 and BFS STATENT 2024 — while the rail side is growing, with division 30 up 25.3% over the same period and railway, road and aircraft vehicle exports the strongest Swiss tech product group in H1 2026 at +19.3%. A buyer's first question should be which half of that split the business actually sits in, because the answer changes the terminal value more than any operating improvement will. The second question is the order book, and here this niche carries a risk that most do not. Work anchored on federal programmes looks like the safest revenue in Swiss industry until the programme is reopened. Parliament approved around CHF 16 billion for the 2035 rail expansion step across roughly 200 projects, but the Federal Council's "Verkehr '45" consultation, opened 19 June 2026 and running to 9 October 2026, would cancel 68 smaller and medium rail projects worth about CHF 2.5 billion that Parliament had already approved, and drop 31 national road projects worth about CHF 16 billion, on the basis of an ETH Zurich expert report. Beyond 2030 the rail programme depends on extending the VAT per-mille for the rail infrastructure fund, which requires a constitutional amendment subject to a mandatory referendum. An owner who presents a federal order book as though it were contracted revenue is overstating the case, and a buyer who discounts it entirely is understating it; the honest treatment is to show which projects are under contract, which are approved but not contracted, and which appear on the cancellation list. Deal multiples for the sector typically run 6.0 - 8.5× EBITDA.

Four trends define the sector in 2026: (1) The containing statistics split: rail up 25.3%, vehicles down 23.7% — BFS STATENT 2024, published 20 August 2026, records NOGA division 30 — other transport equipment, which holds rolling stock — at 290 establishments and 13,699 employees, against 243 and 10,932 in 2012. (2) The pipeline is being repriced, not just spent — The February 2026 edition of this report treated the 2035 rail expansion step as a settled pipeline. (3) Five corrections to the earlier player list — There is no Molinari Rail AG in the commercial register, and no "ABB Traction" entity in Turgi — the register holds ABB Schweiz AG in Baden, with ABB E-mobility AG also in Baden and ABB E-mobility Holding AG in Zürich. (4) A track machinery cluster on the Lake Geneva arc that the earlier list missed — Matisa Matériel Industriel SA is registered in Crissier (VD), SHAB 10 July 2026; Speno International SA in Meyrin (GE), SHAB 24 October 2025; Scheuchzer SA in Bussigny (VD), SHAB 20 February 2026 — three track maintenance and renewal machinery companies within a short distance of each other, none of which appeared in the February 2026 edition.

The principal acquisition risks are: (1) A mandatory referendum stands between the rail expansion programme and its funding beyond 2030 — a political risk no order book can hedge; (2) "Verkehr '45" would also drop 31 national road projects worth about CHF 16 billion, on the basis of an ETH Zurich expert report; reprioritisation is now the established federal method; (3) US tariff escalation: 39% in August 2025, capped at 15% in November 2025, Section 232 duties of 10-50% on steel, aluminium and copper from April 2026, and 12.5% on Swiss tech goods since the end of July 2026. Buyers should conduct thorough due diligence on customer concentration, regulatory compliance, and key-person dependencies. Deal multiples of 6.0 - 8.5× EBITDA may be discounted for firms with elevated risk profiles.

The typical cost breakdown for a Swiss Commercial Infrastructure (Mobility) firm is: Raw Materials (steel, aluminum, composites): 25%, Personnel Costs: 28%, Purchased Components (traction, electronics): 22%, Equipment Depreciation: 6%, Energy & Logistics: 5%, Other Operating Costs: 8%, Profit Margin (EBITDA): 6%. Indicative split for a Swiss rolling stock, commercial vehicle or mobility infrastructure business. The mix differs sharply between the two halves of this niche: vehicle manufacturing is material-heavy and directly exposed to the Section 232 duties of 10-50% on steel, aluminium and copper that have applied since April 2026, while track, catenary and depot contracting is labour-heavy and largely domestic. Maintenance, overhaul and life-extension revenue should be modelled separately from new-build, because it is counter-cyclical and far less exposed to federal programme reprioritisation. That reprioritisation is not hypothetical: the "Verkehr '45" consultation, opened 19 June 2026, would cancel 68 already-approved rail projects worth about CHF 2.5 billion. Swissmem reported railway, road and aircraft vehicle exports up 19.3% in H1 2026, the strongest of all Swiss tech product groups, with capacity utilisation of 81.1% in Q2 2026 against a long-run average of 85.6% (2015-2025), while BFS STATENT 2024 shows NOGA division 30 employment up 25.3% since 2012 and division 29 down 23.7%. These benchmarks are important for buyers assessing operational efficiency and margin improvement potential post-acquisition.

Switzerland's main Commercial Infrastructure (Mobility) clusters are: (1) Thurgau and eastern Switzerland (TG) — Two of the largest vehicle manufacturers in the country are registered in one small canton. (2) Lake Geneva arc (VD, GE) — The track machinery cluster the February 2026 edition of this report missed entirely. (3) Zurich and Winterthur (ZH) — The densest concentration in the niche. Siemens Mobility AG and Stadler Signalling AG are both registered in Wallisellen; Designwerk Technologies AG, PROSE AG and Stadler Winterthur AG in Winterthur; Kummler + Matter AG in Dällikon; and ALSTOM Schweiz AG, Rhomberg Sersa Rail AG and ABB E-mobility Holding AG in Zürich. (4) Mittelland, Glarus and the distributed network — Carrosserie Hess AG is registered in Bellach (SO), Furrer + Frey AG in Bern and Sécheron Hasler Group SA in Glarus — not Geneva, as earlier editions had it. Regional concentration affects valuations, as companies in established clusters benefit from supplier ecosystems, specialized talent pools, and industry networks.